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HDFC Bank Gears Up for Q3FY26 Earnings
HDFC Bank is poised to unveil its third-quarter results for fiscal year 2026 on Saturday, January 17, 2026. The upcoming report is viewed by analysts as a pivotal transitional phase for the banking giant, marked by anticipated improvements in loan expansion and stabilizing net interest margins (NIMs).
Street Expectations Point to Gradual Recovery
Broader market consensus suggests a gradual earnings recovery for HDFC Bank in the December 2025 quarter. While loan growth is expected to accelerate, pressures on liability-side management and subdued treasury income are likely to offset some gains. Net interest income (NII) is projected to grow between 4-7% year-on-year, with net profit anticipated to increase in the 5-11% range. NIMs are expected to remain flat to slightly lower sequentially.
Brokerage Forecasts
Nomura forecasts a 7% year-on-year rise in NII to ₹32,900 crore, supported by robust loan momentum and balance sheet repricing. However, net profit growth is pegged at a modest 7% year-on-year at ₹17,960 crore, potentially declining 4% sequentially due to lower treasury income and deposit challenges. Nomura predicts a 5-basis point expansion in NIMs this quarter, with loan and deposit growth around 12% each. The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio stands near 99%, highlighting the critical need for deposit mobilization to fuel future loan growth. Credit costs are expected to inch up slightly to 0.6%.
BNP Paribas anticipates steady earnings, forecasting NII growth of 4.9% year-on-year and margins stable at 3.5%. Loan growth is estimated at 11.8%, driven by retail and commercial segments. Net profit is expected to rise 5% year-on-year but dip 5.8% sequentially to ₹17,565 crore.
Systematix Institutional Equities projects a 6.4% year-on-year NII growth, reaching ₹32,606.8 crore. NIMs are expected to expand marginally quarter-on-quarter. Loan growth is seen at 12% year-on-year, with deposit growth slightly lagging. The brokerage estimates profit after tax (PAT) growth at 11.2% year-on-year to ₹18,604.3 crore, benefiting from contained operating expenses and benign credit costs.
ICICI Securities forecasts a more modest NII growth of 4.4% year-on-year and PAT growth of 6.5% year-on-year, with NIMs projected to decline 23 basis points year-on-year to 3.39%. Slippages are anticipated to rise approximately 19% quarter-on-quarter.